Karin Kvale

Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria

Avoiding Dangerous Sea Level Rise:  Identifying CO2 Emissions Corridors using the Tolerable Windows Approach

Karin discussed her work with a simple climate change model (ACC2) that has been coupled to an economic and emissions model (DICE).  Her simulations are designed to identify a “tolerable window” for emissions for the coming centuries.  The emissions window is defined by a lower bound of emissions reductions whereby a pre-determined level of sea level rise is avoided, and, by an upper bound of emissions reductions whereby a pre-determined level of economic cost is avoided.  Her results show that a variety of emission trajectories can be followed while staying within the tolerable window.  She plans to further investigate the sensitivity of the coupled models to varying discount rates (how future satisfaction is valued compared to current satisfaction) and assumptions regarding consumption elasticity (to what degree future generations should be richer than the current generation).  Also, the influence of melting glaciers and the thermal expansion of the oceans will be added to the sea level rise calculations.

Julie Vano

Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington

Challenges and Rewards of Translating Climate Change Science for Non-Scientists:  Two Case Studies on Drought

Julie explored the issues facing scientists as they attempt to communicate their knowledge of the impact of climate change on droughts to both the public as well as to more specialized natural resource managers.  Scientists need to be aware of the potential for misinterpretation of results, the needs and interests of those using climate or drought information, as well as the presence of uncertainty in estimates or forecasts.  Julie expressed a hope for bolstering the technical knowledge of those working at the interface between science and general public.

Lauren Rogers

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington

Climate Change and Ecological Systems

Lauren argued that a simple linear understanding of climate impacts (i.e., more warming is equivalent to more deleterious effects) does a poor job of capturing the complex relationship between climate and ecosystems.  Specifically, she highlighted how salmon populations in Bristol Bay, Alaska have exhibited widely varying responses to historical warming depending on the structure of their habitat and the timing of their life cycle.  To best cope with climate change, fishery managers should labor to maintain the genetic diversity that constitutes the “portfolio” of a given area's salmon population. 

John Chandler

Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono

Recent Changes in the Seasonality of Spring Runoff in the Columbia River Basin

John discussed the increase in the proportion of streamflow occurring earlier in the water year (October – September) in the Columbia River Basin over the past 30 years.  When considering the climate projections from global climate models used by the IPCC, this trend continues, with a significant proportion of the historical spring runoff occurring during the winter.  Reservoir management is not designed to handle “surprises,” and, unless a more flexible management strategy is devised, the system may have difficulty in providing water and electricity in a timely manner in the future.